The Polish economy accelerated growth to 4% y/y in the first quarter of 2017, on the back of a 4.1% y/y expansion in domestic demand. However, that included 4.7% y/y growth in private consumption. Investment, which due to the recent recovery in the construction sector was widely predicted to have rebounded from the deep lull into which it fell in 2016, surprised to the downside.
Gross fixed investment dropped a further 0.4% y/y in the first quarter - from an already low base in 2016, despite a 4.6% y/y pick up in the construction sector. Retail benefitted from the rise in consumption. Industry enjoyed a lift from the strong activity in the Eurozone, but domestic demand suffered from continued sluggish investment.
With the growth surge confirmed as the fastest rate since the first quarter of 2015, the outlook for the year remains positive, suggest optimists.
Poland’s consumer sentiment index hit an all-time high of 4.8 in June, and shows consumer confidence improving for the third month in a row. The growth of the index is in line with the Polish economy’s good start to 2017 and appears a sign that private consumption will remain the main pillar of growth this year. That, in turn, is an effect of falling unemployment and steady wages growth.
The unemployment rate remains Poland's lowest in over 25 years. Joblessness dropped 1.7pp y/y to 7.4% in May. The trend of falling unemployment is an important pillar in Poland's economic recovery.
The consumer price index grew 1.5% y/y in June, and shows that price growth is on a path of deceleration following the surge around the turn of the year. Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) predicts that inflation will remain moderate in the coming quarters and observes no growing imbalances in the economy.
However, challenges to growth remain lower income from taxes and problems in meeting the assumed deficit, which the government claims will not exceed 3% of GDP despite inflated expenditure. Meanwhile, political uncertainty and the poor external conditions in the rest of Europe are expected to weigh on consumer confidence in 2017.
The bank sector profits are under pressure, while pricing conditions in the banking market remain unfavourable as lenders continue to face pressure from the government to unwind huge Swiss franc mortgage loan portfolios.
Domestic politics remain tense with worries attached to the policies of the Law of Justice (PiS) administration. The extreme populist views of the government are unsettling both swaths of the population and the business community which is holding back investment as a result.
On the bright side, several big investments into the transport and energy sectors in particular have been a plus and are expected to create new jobs.
Table of Contents
1.0 Executive summary
2.1 Trump punches Poland’s happy buttons with first European speech
2.2 Walesa to join Polish anti-government protest
2.3 Visegrad insists EU funds must not be held hostage
2.4 Visegrad states told no separate definition of EU solidarity possible
2.5 Nato to beef up Baltic and Polish presence during Russian drill
2.6 Polish president confirms plans for referenda on migrants and constitution
2.7 Polish government delays controversial judicial reform bill
2.8 Poland voted onto UN Security Council
2.9 Polls & Sociology
3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
3.1 Macro outlook
4.0 Real Economy
4.1 Industrial production
4.2.1 CPI dynamics
4.2.2 PPI dynamic
4.2.3 Producers dynamics & PMI
4.4 Fixed investment
4.5 Labour and income
4.5.1 Labour market, unemployment dynamics
4.5.2 Income dynamics
4.5.3 Retail sector dynamics
4.5.4 bne Despair index
5.0 External Sector & Trade
5.1 External sector overview
5.2 Balance of payments, current account
5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
5.2.2 Current account dynamics
5.2.3 Gross international reserves
6.0 Public Sector
6.1.1 Budget dynamics - specific issues
6.1.2 Budget dynamics - tax issues
6.1.3 Budget dynamics - funding, privatization
6.2.1 Local debt market dynamic
8.0 Financial & capital markets
8.1 Bank sector overview
8.1.5 Banks specific issues
8.1.6 Bank news
8.2 Central Bank policy rate
8.3 Stock market
8.3.1 ECM news
8.4 International ratings
8.4.1 International ratings - specific details of rating actions corp/regional etc
8.5 Fixed income
8.5.1 Fixed income - bond news
8.5.2 Fixed income - govt funding plans
9.0 Industry & Sectors
9.1 Sector news
9.1.1 Oil & gas sector news
9.1.2 Real estate sector news
9.1.3 Automotive sector news
9.1.4 Transport sector news
9.1.5 Agriculture sector news
9.1.6 Utilities and energy sector news
9.1.7 Metallurgy & mining sector news
9.1.8 Other sector news
9.2 Major corporate news
9.2.1 Oil & gas corporate news
9.2.2 Transport corporate news
9.2.3 Utilities corporate news
9.2.4 Retail corporate news
9.2.5 Other sector news
Release Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2017