Ukraine Country Report Dec16 - December, 2016

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Ukraine Country Report Dec16 - December, 2016

1.0 Executive summary
2.0 Politics
2.1 Ukraine most corrupt country in Europe
2.2 Ukraine near bottom of WJP Rule of Law ranking
2.3 Ukraine World Bank doing business ranking
2.4 Ukraine still near bottom of Transparency Intl corruption ranking
2.5 Politics - misc
2.3 Polls & Sociology
3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
3.2 Macro outlook
4.0 Real Economy
4.1 Industrial production
4.2 Inflation
4.2.1 CPI dynamics
4.3 Fixed investment
4.5 Labour and income
4.5.1 Labour market, unemployment dynamics
4.5.2 Income dynamics
4.5.3 Retail sector dynamics
5.0 External Sector & Trade
5.1 External sector overview
5.2 Balance of payments, current account
5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
5.2.2 Current account dynamics
5.2.3 Gross international reserves
5.3 FDI
6.0 Public Sector
6.1 Budget
6.1.1 Budget dynamics - specific issues…
6.1.2 Budget dynamics - govt funding & privatization
6.2 Debt
7.0 FX
7.1 FX issues
8.0 Financial & capital markets
8.1 Bank sector overview
8.1.1 Earnings
8.1.7 Banks specific issues
8.1.8 Bank news
8.2 Central Bank policy rate
8.3 Stock market
8.3.1 Dividends dynamics
8.3.1 ECM news
8.4 International ratings
8.4.1 International ratings - specific details of rating actions corp/regional etc
8.5 Fixed income
8.5.1 Fixed income - bond news
9.0 Industry & Sectors
9.1 Sector news
9.1.1 Oil & gas sector news
9.1.2 Automotive sector news
9.1.3 Transport sector news
9.1.4 Construction & Real estate sector news
9.1.5 Retail sector news
9.1.6 Agriculture sector news
9.1.7 TMT sector news
9.1.8 Tourism sector news
9.1.9 Utilities sector news
9.1.10 Metallurgy & mining sector news
9.1.11 Other sector news
9.2 Major corporate news
9.2.1 Oil & gas corporate news
9.2.2 Automotive corporate news
9.2.3 Transport corporate news
9.2.4 Construction & Real estate corporate news
9.2.5 Retail corporate news
9.2.6 Agriculture corporate news
9.2.7 TMT corporate news
9.2.8 Tourism corporate news
9.2.9 Utilities corporate news
9.2.10 Metallurgy & mining corporate news

Table of Contents

Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers projects GDP growth at 1% in 2016 and at
3% in 2017. Inflation in 2017 is forecast by the Ukrainian government at about
8.1% while the forex rate is expected at UAH27.2 per US dollar.
The economy is clearly stabilizing and is expected to return to growth in
2017, although the official growth forecast is considered optimistic. In particular
Ukraine’s exports remain weak and those to the EU in particular are falling
despite the new DCFTA trade agreement. At the same time while imports are
also still falling their relative share in the trade mix is rising. The ratio of exports
to imports has fallen from over 1 to 0.93 as of November. S&P says the broadly
stabilizing macroeconomic picture within Ukraine in 2016 and positive growth
has returned while inflation has calmed.
Despite the failure to make any real progress in the fight against corruption -- the
issue international donors now care most about -- the government has managed
to implemented some key reforms that paved the way for the disbursement
(albeit delayed) ofbn from the IMF in September 2016.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) sees "a high probability" of further
delays to disbursements of IMF and other official financing from other
creditors , the regulator said in the second issue of the Financial Stability Report
published on December 13. According to the central bank, this is one of the key
risks to Ukraine's financial stability.
But the country is still stepping off square one having entirely ignored any
reforms in the last 20 years; Ukraine remains one of two countries from the
15 former Soviet republics where income is still below 1989 levels.
The security situation in the east of the country remains unpredictable,
sizable contingent liabilities, and questions relating to the health of the banking
and financial sector.
"Ukraine's economy has returned to growth in the last two quarters of 2016, and
we forecast real GDP growth of 1% for 2016 despite weak exports, ongoing
security risks, the weak domestic business environment, and the need for fiscal
prudence. We expect continuing growth over the forecast period; a pick up in the
later years should lead to GDP growth averaging 2.3% annually between
2016-2019," S&P said.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Ukraine is currently lower than it was
prior to the Maidan protests in 2014 under ousted president Viktor
Yanukovych, but has started to grow over the first nine months of this year.
Foreign investments have fallen steadily in the last three years from .6bn
invested into 82 new projects in 2013, then 8.2mn in 25 projects in 2014, and
4mn in 19 projects in 2015, according to fDi Markets. However, this year
investment picked up again with the announcements of 6.6mn in 20
greenfield projects in the first nine months of 2016. The government estimates
that to achieve the target values of economic growth, the country needed FDI of
bn-bn per year.

Number of pages: 50
Release Date: Fri, 23 Dec 2016