Ukraine Country Report Jan17 - January, 2017

USD $475.00
Ukraine Country Report Jan17 - January, 2017

Ukraine’s crisis is over as it had already emerged from recession in the third quarter of 2016. Nearly all the economics indicators like industrial production and retail sales were back in positive territory as 2016 came to an end. While welcome following the total collapse of the economy in 2015, this good news leaves Ukraine at the start of a very long road of investment and reform if it is going  to fulfill on its potential.

Politically the country is still in a difficult place. The IMF is now strictly holding the government to account on demanded reforms. The original IMF deal should have seen some bn of aid a year; the IMF actually sent .6bn in 2015 and less than half as much again in 2015. However, with the stabalised economy and some .4bn in reserves -- equivalent to over three months import cover needed to have a stable currency -- the economy functions without outside help.

There have been some outstanding success on the reform front. Banking and energy markets are the two stand out examples. But there has been next to no progress on the corruption front. President Petro Poroshenko has simply adopted the old oligarchic system with himself in charge as a more enlightened leader than previous presidents. While this is enough to ensure stability it is not enough to kick start the deep reforms and associated foreign investment that would allow Ukraine to flourish.

It will get there in the end, but everyone involved has scaled back their expectations. The country will continue to make slow progress until the 2018 elections that could bring a major change in direction.

Table of Contents

1.0 Executive summary
2.0 Politics
2.1 Ukraine, Russia at bottom of Transparency Intl index in Europe
2.2 Ukraine near bottom of WJP Rule of Law ranking
2.3 Ukraine media partly free
2.4 Politics - misc
2.5 Polls & Sociology
3.0 Macro Economy
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
3.2 Macro outlook
4.0 Real Economy
4.1 Industrial production
4.2  Inflation
4.2.1 CPI dynamics
4.2.2 PPI dynamic
4.3 Fixed investment
4.4 Labour and income
4.4.1 Labour market, unemployment dynamics
4.4.2 Retail sector dynamics
5.0 External Sector & Trade
5.1 External sector overview
5.2 Balance of payments, current account
5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
5.2.2 Current account dynamics
5.2.3 Gross international reserves
5.3 FDI
6.0 Public Sector
6.1 Budget
6.1.1 Budget dynamics - specific issues…
6.1.2 Budget dynamics - tax issues
6.1.3 Budget dynamics - privatization, funding
6.2 Debt
7.0 FX
7.1 FX issues
8.0 Financial & capital markets
8.1 Bank sector overview
8.1.1 Earnings
8.1.2 Deposits & Loans
8.1.3 CARs
8.1.4 Banks specific issues
8.1.5 Bank news
8.1.6 PrivatBank’s problems threatened Ukraine’s banking system
8.2 Central Bank policy rate
8.3 Stock market
8.4 International ratings
8.5 Fixed income
8.5.1 Fixed income - bond news
8.5.2 Fixed income - PrivatBank Eurobond holders wiped out
8.5.3 Fixed income - govt funding plans
9.0 Industry & Sectors
9.1 Sector news
9.1.1 Oil & gas sector news
9.1.2 Automotive sector news
9.1.3 Transport sector news
9.1.4 Construction & Real estate sector news
9.1.5 Retail sector news
9.1.6 Agriculture sector news
9.2 Major corporate news
9.2.1 Oil & gas corporate news
9.2.2 Transport corporate news
9.2.3 Agriculture corporate news
9.2.4 Utilities corporate news
9.2.5 Metallurgy & mining corporate news

Number of pages: 68
Release Date: Wed, 08 Feb 2017